Sunday, January 17, 2010

Analytical Models in the Fog of Uncertainty

Dr Sam L Savage urges decision makers to keep an eye on the "big picture" when relying on analytical models to pilot a business (2009, p. 44):
If managing a business is like flying a plane, then analytical models are analogous to the instruments. Use them to calibrate your intuition while visibility is good. Then use them with caution if you are suddenly socked in by the fog of uncertainty.
Of course, there is a corollary to Savage's advice: Make certain the analytical instrumentation in your dashboard is active and working before the fog rolls in...

Reference: Savage, S L (2009), The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley.

No comments:

Post a Comment