Sunday, November 29, 2009

ModelRisk 3.0: Best in Class Solution for Excel-Based Risk Analysis

I have been a practicing risk modeler and analyst now for over fifteen years, and during that time, I have worked and trained with a variety of popular spreadsheet-based software tools, including Crystal Ball (Oracle) and @Risk (Palisade). Each of these applications enables users of Excel (Microsoft) to incorporate simulations and optimizations into models. However, neither Crystal Ball nor @Risk offers a comprehensive software solution that combines simulation and optimization with stochastic object modeling, time-series forecasting, and multivariate correlation. ModelRisk 3.0 from Vose Software (Ghent, Brussels) combines all of these features into a single application that works seamlessly with Excel.
The tools and techniques made available in ModelRisk have been developed from Vose Consulting’s experience in assessing risk in a broad range of industries over many years, and goes far beyond the Monte Carlo simulation tools currently available. ModelRisk has been designed to make risk analysis modeling simpler and more intuitive for the novice user, and at the same time provide access to the most advanced risk modeling techniques available. (Press release, Vose Software, May 11, 2009)
The latest version of ModelRisk is the most advanced spreadsheet-based risk-modeling platform ever developed and currently stands as the best in class software solution for quantitative risk analysis, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. ModelRisk enables users to build complex risk analysis models in a fraction of the time required to develop custom-coded applications. Open database connectivity further extends the business intelligence capabilities of this integrated platform by enabling access to essentially any data warehousing system in use today.
“Good risk analysis modeling doesn’t have to be hard, but the tools just weren’t there to make it easy and intuitive. So we asked, “If we could start from the beginning, what would the ideal risk analysis tool be like?” says David Vose, Technical Director of Vose Software. “ModelRisk is the result. Users of competing spreadsheet risk analysis tools will find all the features they are familiar with in ModelRisk, but ModelRisk throws open the doors to a far richer world of risk analysis modeling. Better still, ModelRisk has many visual tools that really help the user understand what they are modeling so they can be confident in what they do, and ModelRisk costs no more than the older tools available. We also have a training program second-to-none: the people teaching our courses are risk analysts with years of real-world experience, not just software trainers.”
ModelRisk 3.0 now includes:
  • Over 100 distribution types
  • Stochastic ‘objects’ for more powerful and intuitive modeling
  • Time-series forecasting tools such as ARMA, ARCH, GARCH, and more
  • Advanced correlations via copulas
  • Distribution fitting of time-series data, including correlation structures
  • Probability measures and reporting
  • Integrated optimization using the most advanced, proven methods available
  • Multiple visual interfaces for ModelRisk functions
  • User library for organizing models, assumptions, references, simulation results, and more
  • Direct linking to external databases
  • Extreme-value modeling
  • Advanced data visualization tools
  • Expert elicitation tools
  • Mathematical tools fors numerical integration, series summation, and matrix analysis
  • Comprehensive statistical analytics
  • World class help file
  • Developers’ kit for programming using ModelRisk’s technology
Currently, no other competing software package on the market offers the same comprehensive list or range of features found in ModelRisk 3.0, which is now my primary risk modeling, forecasting, and business intelligence platform. For more information, follow the link below.

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