- The probability of a catastrophic financial meltdown occurring during a given 5-year period is one in ten thousand (1:10,000); and
- The probability of a catastrophic environmental disaster occurring during a given 5-year period is also one in ten thousand (1:10,000).
Of course, the assumptions above are hypothetical. Nonetheless, the analysis leads me to suspect that the levels of risk assumed by the financial services and energy sectors in recent years have evidently been quite high, and certainly much higher than those portrayed above. Or perhaps recent events in the US are simply one of those one in one hundred million anomalies of fate...
The Financial Economics of Synthetic Catastrophe