The Intuitive Elegance of Stochastic Forecasting

I created the video below using Excel (Microsoft) plus ModelRisk (Vose) to demonstrate the intuitive elegance of stochastic forecasting. The blue line represents a notional historical time-series, and the red line represents the forecasted results. I removed the horizontal and vertical axis to avoid distraction from the forecasting process. The data from each forecast path is captured by Excel and ModelRisk for post hoc aggregation and statistical analysis:



Follow the link below to learn more about the software tools I use to generate stochastic forecasts in professional practice.

Software Tools

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Multiple Stochastic Forecasts Illustrated

Evidence of Indeterminism