Friday, April 09, 2010

The Course of Inflation III

In response to The Course of Inflation and The Course of Inflation II, a reader asked for the histogram describing forecasted gold prices for the year 2025, which follows:

The histogram illustrates the distributed forecast results for 2025. Observe that the vertical at the 1st and 99th percentiles correspondence with the percentile trend plots for 2025 found at The Course of Inflation II. The distribution forecast for 2025 is positively skewed with a mode of just over $600/oz. Again, the forecasted long-term returns for gold appear to be similar to the current risk free rate.

A complete report of results, including historical data, histograms and statistics for each year, and trial data is linked below:

Gold Prices Stochastics Report.xls

Please keep in mind that the forecast does not consider gold fundamentals other than historical prices. For anyone interested in learning more about the methods and technology used to create this analysis, please visit:

Learn More

Related Posts:

The Course of Inflation II

The Course of Inflation

1 comment:

Max J. Pucher said...

Thanks, William. I will be back in 2025. Regards, Max.

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