Thursday, April 09, 2009

The Ten Commandments of Risk Analysis

The Ten Commandments of risk analysis according to Prof Granger Morgan and Prof Max Henrion (1990):
  • Do your homework with literature, experts, and users
  • Let the problem drive the analysis
  • Make the analysis as simple as possible, but no simpler
  • Identify all significant assumptions
  • Be explicit about decision criteria and policy strategy
  • Be explicit about uncertainties
  • Perform systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
  • Iteratively refine the problem statement and analysis
  • Document clearly and completely
  • Expose to peer review

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