Tuesday, September 27, 2011

No Limits: Jeb Corliss and Roberta Mancino

Congratulations to Dr Robyn Kapperman

Congratulations to Dr Robyn A Kapperman, who recently earned her Doctor of Business Administration (DBA) degree at Northcentral University in Prescott Valley, Arizona -- well done, Dr Robyn...

Dr Robyn A Kapperman in Washington, DC

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Sunday, September 25, 2011

Five Misconceptions About Visualization

Nathan Yau outlines five common misconceptions about visualization of business intelligence:
  • Visualization is for making data flashy
  • Software does everything
  • The more information in a single graphic, the better
  • Visualization is too biased to be useful
  • Visualization has to be exact
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I would add that the misconceptions outlined by Yau above, apply equally to modeling in general.

Source: Yau, N (2011, September 23), 5 Misconceptions About Visualization, Flowing Data.

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A Child Of Mine

I will lend you, for a little time,
A child of mine, He said.
For you to love the while she lives,
And mourn for when she's dead.

It may be six or seven years,
Or twenty-two or three.
But will you, till I call her back,
Take care of her for Me?

She'll bring her charms to gladden you,
And should her stay be brief.
You'll have her lovely memories,
As solace for your grief.

I cannot promise she will stay,
Since all from earth return.
But there are lessons taught down there,
I want this child to learn.

I've looked the wide world over,
In search for teachers true.
And from the throngs that crowd life's lanes,
I have selected you.

Now will you give her all your love,
Nor think the labour vain.
Nor hate me when I come
To take her home again?

I fancied that I heard them say,
'Dear Lord, Thy will be done!'
For all the joys Thy child shall bring,
The risk of grief we'll run.

We'll shelter her with tenderness,
We'll love her while we may,
And for the happiness we've known,
Forever grateful stay.

But should the angels call for her,
Much sooner than we've planned.
We'll brave the bitter grief that comes,
And try to understand.

~ Edgar A Guest

Edgar A Guest (1881-1959)

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Well Said...

"You've got to get to the stage in life where going for it is more important than winning or losing."

~ Arthur Ashe

Arthur Robert Ashe Jr (1943-1993)

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Friday, September 23, 2011

Toward a Peer-to-Peer Economy

Douglas Rushkoff discusses his ten commandments for peer-to-peer growth in the digital economy:



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Tuesday, September 20, 2011

'High School Physics'

One of the least savory traits of climate-change advocates is how they've tried to bully anyone who keeps an open mind. This is true of many political projects, but it is or ought to be anathema to the scientific method. With the cap-and-trade movement stymied, Mr. Gore and the climate clan have become even more arch in their dismissals of anyone who disagrees. Readers can decide who they'd rather study physics with—Professor Giaever, or Mr. Gore's list of politically certified instructors.

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Source: 'High School Physics' (2011, September 18), Wall Street Journal Online.

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Excel + ModelRisk: Interpolation Calculations

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Excel + ModelRisk: Subject Matter Expert Time Series Modeling

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Excel + ModelRisk: Wilkie Models

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Excel + ModelRisk: Multivariate Time Series Modeling

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Excel + ModelRisk: Univariate Time Series Modeling

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Brazilian Script Takes Root in Local Economy

The capivari is one of 63 local moneys—including bills named after the sun, cactus and the Brazil nut—now circulating in needy neighborhoods throughout Latin America's biggest economy. The idea is gaining currency as towns seek a share of current economic growth. This month, a new local currency hit the streets in Cidade de Deus, the Rio slum that was the subject of a blockbuster film and a stop on President Barack Obama's South American tour this year.

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Source: Prada, P (2011, September 20), In Pockets of Booming Brazil, a Mint Idea Gains Currency, Wall Street Journal Online.

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Sunday, September 18, 2011

Does America Really Need More Jobs?

Douglas Rushkoff explains his views about the future of jobs and work in America.



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Business Schools Plan Leap Into Data

Faced with an increasing stream of data from the Web and other electronic sources, many companies are seeking managers who can make sense of the numbers through the growing practice of data analytics, also known as business intelligence. Finding qualified candidates has proven difficult, but business schools hope to fill the talent gap.

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Source: Korn, M & Tibken, S (2011, August 4), Business Schools Plan Leap Into Data, Wall Street Journal Online.

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Friday, September 16, 2011

Well Said...

"It's so legato it's difficult to splice. Sibelius was famous for that."

~ Eugene Ormandy

Maestro Eugene Ormandy (1899-1985)

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Thursday, September 15, 2011

Well Said...

"Ask not what your country can do for you -- ask what you can do for your country."

~ John F Kennedy

Hon John Fitzgerald "Jack" Kennedy (1917-1963)

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Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Excel + ModelRisk: Stop Sum Functions

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Excel + ModelRisk: Sum Product Functions

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Excel + ModelRisk: Aggregate De Pril Modeling

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Excel + ModelRisk: Aggregate Multivariate Monte Carlo

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Excel + ModelRisk: Aggregate Fast Fourier Transforms

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Excel + ModelRisk: Aggregate Monte Carlo

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Excel + ModelRisk: Aggregate Multivariate Fast Fourier Transforms

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Excel + ModelRisk: Aggregate Panjer

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Excel + ModelRisk: Bivariate Copulas

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Excel + ModelRisk: Multivariate Copulas

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US Residential Home Values Decline Sharply Since 2006

Zillow Real Estate Research reported earlier this year that US residential home values have declined sharply since 2006.


Source: Zillow Real Estate Research

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US Job-Based Health Insurance Coverage in Decline Since 2000

A recent report by the US Census Bureau confirms that the percentage of Americans with job-based health insurance coverage has declined sharply since 2000.


Source: US Census Bureau

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US Real Income Trends Downward Since 2000

A recent report by the US Census Bureau confirms that real income in the US has been trending downwards since 2000.


Source: US Census Bureau

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Decision Analysis at Chevron



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Monday, September 12, 2011

The Eight Accordances

  1. First, do no harm…
  2. Be the source…
  3. Be impeccable with your word…
  4. Don’t take things personally…
  5. Avoid making unnecessary assumptions…
  6. Do your best…
  7. Be skeptical...
  8. But listen...
Sources:

Hippocrates (1952). Of the Epidemics (F Adams, Trans). In R M Hutchins & M Adler (Eds), Great Books of the Western World (Vol 10, pp. 44-63). Chicago, IL: Encyclopædia Britannica.

Ruiz, M A (1997). The Four Agreements. San Rafael, CA: Amber-Allen.

Ruiz, M A (2009). The Fifth Agreement. San Rafael, CA: Amber-Allen.

Walsch, N D (1999). Abundance and Right Livelihood. Charlottesville, VA: Hampton Books.

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The High Accordances

Well Said...

"Originality is the essence of true scholarship. Creativity is the soul of the true scholar."

~ Nnamdi Azikiwe

"Dr" Benjamin Nnamdi Azikiwe (1904-1996)

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The Problem with War...

The problem with war is what it makes of a nation.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Analytics: The New Path to Value

According to a research report published by MIT Sloan Management Review (2010):
As the well-documented "data deluge" deepens, many executives have shifted from feeling overwhelmed (60% say they "have more information than we can effectively use") to recognizing that the smartest organizations are already capitalizing on increased information richness and analytics to gain competitive advantage.
The report describes an emerging approach to analytics grounded upon five guiding imperatives:
  • Focus on the biggest opportunities first.
  • Start with questions, not data.
  • Embed insights to drive action.
  • Keep existing capabilities while adding new ones.
  • Build the analytics foundation according to an information agenda.
Follow the link below to download the full report.

Analytics: The New Path to Value


Source: Analytics: The New Path to Value (2010, Fall), MIT Sloan Management Review.

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The Good Life Comes in Moments...

I could not resist another photograph of outdoor inspiration earlier today.

Cloud Formations Outside My Home Late Afternoon Today

The good life comes in moments...

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Saturday, September 10, 2011

Well Said...

"There are two questions a man must ask himself. The first is 'where am I going?' and the second is 'who will go with me?' If you ever get these questions in the wrong order you are in trouble."

~ Sam Keen

Dr Samuel McMurray Keen

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Sam Keen on Life's Stories



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Friday, September 09, 2011

Prototypal Business Intelligence Stack for Ad Hoc Self-Service Risk Analytics

Although business intelligence (BI) stacks often mix solutions from various vendors, the following is a prototypal BI stack for ad hoc self-service risk analytics:


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What is Business Intelligence?

business intelligence

The use of data to discover what is happening with a company. An example of business intelligence is the use of a computer program to look at financial statements to detect irregularities or other patterns. A company may do this to improve its own efficiency, an outside observer may do it to make recommendations or to invest, and a competitor may do it to find potential advantages.

Source: The Free Dictionary


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Well Said...

"Don't allow your wounds to transform you into someone you are not."

~ Paulo Coehlo

Paulo Coehlo (1947- )

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Follow this Sign for Better Solutions to America's Economic Troubles


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Thursday, September 08, 2011

Well Said...

"Best efforts will not substitute for knowledge."

~ W Edwards Deming

Dr William Edwards Deming (1900-1993)

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Wednesday, September 07, 2011

Using Mind Maps as a Teaching and Learning Tool

"Mind mapping" can be an excellent tool for creating learner engagement, according to Prof Genevieve Pinto Zipp of Faculty Focus (2011):
Creating an environment that engages students in the learning journey is not always easy. Sometimes as faculty members we ask ourselves, “Are we taking this learning journey by ourselves?” Several years ago as I began my scholarly exploration of the utility of mind mapping as a teaching and learning tool to foster critical thinking, my colleague and I instituted a mind mapping learning activity which has helped to promote student engagement in the classroom.
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I have been using mind mapping software, both in and out of the classroom, since the 1980's. I currently use MindManager (Mindjet) as my brainstorming platform of choice. See below an example of a personal mind map I use on a daily basis to keep record and track of my goals, tasks, and responsibilties. I view MindManager as the "missing application" in the Microsoft Office suite.

Example "Mind Map" [click image to expand]

Source: Zipp, G P (2011, September 6), Using Mind Maps as a Teaching and Learning Tool to Promote Student Engagement, Faculty Focus.

Excel + ModelRisk: Ogive Distributions

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Excel + ModelRisk: Deduction Modeling

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Excel + ModelRisk: Risk Event Modeling

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Excel + ModelRisk: Combined Distributions

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Excel + ModelRisk: Splicing Distributions

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Excel + ModelRisk: Inverse Gaussian Distributions

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Excel + ModelRisk: Weibull Distributions

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Excel + ModelRisk: Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management

Risk professionals seeking practical methods for modeling risk using spreadsheets will be interested in the new textbook, Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management (Lehman, Groenendaal & Nolder, 2011). Click the image below to preview the contents.

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I have adopted Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management as the standard textbook for my online training courses linked below.

Risk Modeling & Decision Analysis via Excel + ModelRisk

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Excel + ModelRisk: Poisson Distributions

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Excel + ModelRisk: Bernoulli Distributions

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Excel + ModelRisk: Binomial Distributions

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Excel + ModelRisk: Beta Distributions

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